Jul 9, 2025
Groundwater Assessment in the Lower Colorado River Basin
Dr. J S. Famiglietti, is a Global Futures Professor and hydrologist with the School of Sustainability at Arizona State University (ASU) and he serves as the director for ASU’s Arizona Water Innovation Initiative. Famiglietti and his colleagues recently published an article in the Geophysical Research Letters journal (Abdelmohsen et al., 2025) with the American Geophysical Union (AGU) that describes the declining groundwater supplies in the lower Colorado River basin (LCRB). The methods for conducting this analysis are described in other publications (Rodell, Famiglietti et al., 2004; Rodell, Houser et al., 2004).
This research is valuable in providing important information regarding the current and future management of the Colorado River and LCRB groundwater supplies. In Arizona, 36% of the state’s water supply comes from the Colorado River and 41% from groundwater (Figure 1, ADWR, 2025). Agriculture uses 72% of the total Arizona water supply (Figure 2, ADWR, 2025).
As surface water supplies in the Colorado River have diminished over the past 25 years due to the ongoing drought in the southwest, conservation measures have resulted in reductions of allocations from the river. In response many areas, e.g. central Arizona, have turned to increasing groundwater withdrawals to supplement the difference.
In many discussions regarding the future management of Arizona water resources, groundwater sources are often considered for possible use and planning. In parts of the state with Active Management Areas (AMAs) there is a 100-year water supply requirement that must be proven before land can be developed (Figure 3; 1980 Groundwater Management Act (GWMA), Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) 2017). Groundwater resources are often listed as future sources for development.
The Arizona GWMA has helped reduce groundwater depletion rates in some of the AMAs. But based on ADWR projections, some of the AMAs will not be able to meet the sustainability goals set in the GWMA to achieve safe yield by 2025 (ADWR, 2016, 2020). In addition, the Phoenix AMA is projected to encounter complete depletion by the end of the century based on groundwater simulations (ADWR, 2023).
It is important to note that only 18% of Arizona (by area) is subject to groundwater management, highlighting the urgent need for broader and more effective groundwater management across the entire LCRB.
Making assumptions on resources that might not exist is dangerous and reckless. In the process of trying to prove a 100-year water supply with a changing climate, the inclusion of groundwater resources are increasingly important. It is essential that we deal with facts and the truth and not hopeful thinking in planning for the future with issues like water resources.
This recent work by Abdelmohsen et al., (2025) is important in that it provides a good estimate of the groundwater supplies across the LCRB. Their results show very severely diminished levels of groundwater supplies in many parts of Arizona (Figure 4). Overall, this is good work with good methodology and conclusions.
However, in one aspect I believe their conclusions are flawed regarding their recommendations for agriculture to simply move away from water-intensive crops and flood irrigation and to utilize low-water use crops and irrigation systems such as drip irrigation to reduce overall water demand. That is a nice simple theory, and it is commonly advocated by scientists working in this arena and others that are probably well-intended but poorly informed of the facts (Richter et al., 2023 and Famiglietti, 2014).
Important conclusions from this study show that because of the increasing aridification along with increasing demand in this region, between 2015 to 2024 the level of groundwater storage across the LCRB decreased by a factor of 3. It is estimated that a total of 42.3 million acre-feet (MAF) of water has been lost in this period across the entire basin from all sources and that 27.8 MAF of this loss was from groundwater, which is estimated to be roughly equivalent to the full Lake Mead capacity.
Abdelmohsen et al., (2025) suggest that progress towards groundwater sustainability in the Colorado River basin could be achieved by reducing current annual extraction in balance current rates of depletion. This translates to a reduction in current annual groundwater depletion of 0.35 km3/year (0.28 MAF) in the upper basin and 1.5 km3/year (1.22 MAF) in the lower basin.
To put that in perspective, the total annual water consumption in Arizona is approximately 7.0 MAF (ADWR, 2025). The Drought Contingency Plan reduction for Tier 1 in Arizona is 512 thousand acre-feet (KAF) and Tier 2a is 592 KAF.
With a current population of 7.6M in Arizona and a projected population of 8.9 to 9.6M people by 2050, the pressures and competition for water among all sectors will be increasingly intense. In Maricopa County, the population is projected to reach between 6.0 and 7.0M by 2050.
Arizona agriculture will be continually forced to deal with the increasing urban population and the diminishing water supplies. The recent results coming from Abdelmohsen et al., (2025) provide a valuable assessment of groundwater supplies in the LCRB and Arizona and the importance of conservation measures.
This also reinforces the critical need for Arizona to develop functional groundwater legislation for areas beyond the established AMAs.

Figure 1. Sources of the Arizona water supply. Source: Arizona Department of Water
Resources (ADWR).

Figure 2. Arizona’s water use by sector. Source: Arizona Department of Water Resources
(ADWR).

Figure 3. One-hundred-year water supply requirements for Active Management Areas in
Arizona. Source: ADWR, 2025.

Figure 4. Categorization of groundwater basins based on water usage in the LCRB. (a) This
classification map utilizes data from the University of Arizona and the Arizona Department
of Water Resources (ADWR, 2016) to show the predominant source of water. Basins with
significant access to surface water are shown in blue; (b) TWS trends (mm/year) from
GRACE/FO for the groundwater basins in (a). The basins with the greatest loss rates are
shown by progressively darker red colors. Source: Abdelmohsen, et al. 2025.
References:
Abdelmohsen, K., Famiglietti, J. S.,Ao, Y.Z., Mohajer, B., & Chandanpurkar, H. A. 2025. Declining fresh water availability in the Colorado River basin threatens sustainability of its critical groundwater supplies. Geophysical Research Letters, 52,e2025GL115593. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115593
Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR).2016. Arizona's strategic vision for water supply sustainability. Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR). Retrieved from https://new.azwater.gov/sites/default/files/ADWR_2016_Strategic_Vision.pdf
Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR). 2017. 1980 Groundwater Management Act. https://www.azwater.gov/news/articles/2017-01-23-3
Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR).2020 Arizona groundwater management report for active management areas 2020. Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR). Retrieved from https://new.azwater.gov
Arizona Department of Water Resources(ADWR). 2023. Groundwater sustainability simulations: 2023 Phoenix AMA groundwater outlook. Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR).
Arizona Department of Water Resources.2025. Arizona’s Water Supplies. https://www.arizonawaterfacts.com/water-your-facts
Famiglietti, J. S. 2014. The global groundwater crisis. Nature Climate Change, 4(11), 945–948. https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2425
Richter, B. D., Ao, Y., Lamsal, G., Wei, D., Amaya, M., Marston, L., & Davis, K. F. 2023. Alleviating water scarcity by optimizing crop mixes. Nature Water 2023, 1(12), 1035–1047. https://www.nature.com/articles/s44221-023-00155-9
Rodell, M., Famiglietti, J. S., Chen,J., Seneviratne, S. I., Viterbo, P., Holl, S., &Wilson, C. R. (2004a).Basin scale estimates of evapotranspiration using GRACE and other observations. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(20), L20504. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020873
Rodell, M., Houser, P. R., Jambor, U., Gottschalck, J., Mitchell, K., Meng, C.‐J., et al. (2004b). The global land data assimilation system. Bulletin America Meteorology Social, 85(March),381–394. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS853381