Aug 20, 2025
Global Decline in Available Fresh Water
In a recent article in this space, I provided a summary of some recent work from the Dr. J S. Famiglietti program at Arizona State University (ASU). Dr. Famiglietti is a Global Futures Professor and hydrologist with the School of Sustainability, and he serves as the director for ASU’s Arizona Water Innovation Initiative.
The work I recently summarized was published in the Geophysical Research Letters journal (Abdelmohsen et al., 2025) with the American Geophysical Union (AGU). That article describes the declining groundwater supplies in the lower Colorado River basin (LCRB). The methods for conducting this analysis are described in other publications (Rodell, Famiglietti et al., 2004; Rodell, Houser et al., 2004).
Additional work from the Famiglietti group has recently been published with their findings regarding a global review of terrestrial water storage (TWS) as a critical indicator of freshwater availability. In their methodology, they again used NASA GRACE/GRACE-FO data to show that the continents have undergone unprecedented TWS loss since 2002 (Chandanpukar, et al. 2025).
Some results of this study are summarized in Figures 1 and 2 revealing areas of intense TWS loss in this century. Mexico and Central America, the desert Southwest and other areas in the United States, i.e., California and the Ogallala Aquifer on the high plains, are clearly identified as having severe depletions of TWS, both surface and groundwater. These three regions are collectively identified as one large southwestern North American-Central American mega-drying region.
This work represents one piece of an ensemble of studies conducted by Famiglietti and his colleagues in recent years (Castle, 2014; Chandanpurkar, 2021; Famiglietti, 2014; Famiglietti, 2019; Famiglietti and Ferguson, 2021; Khorrami, 2023; Mohan, 2023; Rodell, 2018; Rodell, Famiglietti, 2004; Rodell, Houser, 2004; Scanlon, 2023;Voss, 2013; and Xu, 2023). Their methods are well-established, and they have been thoroughly scrutinized and reviewed.
Important conclusions from this study show that because of the increasing aridification along with increasing demand among many areas across the entire planet between 2002 to 2024, the availability of surface water and the levels of groundwater storage have substantially decreased.
The depletion of TWS is impacting many regions of the world. These depletions are particularly severe in many arid and semi-arid regions. As surface water sources have declined with increasing aridity in many areas, that has contributed to increasing demand for groundwater resources.
The current water crisis in Iran demonstrates the degree of severity that many parts of the world are experiencing, Kowser and Nader, 2025. The basic needs for Iran in dealing with their water crisis is like many other countries and regions. The key points that need immediate attention include improved and well-integrated agronomic programs (i.e., crop-soil-water management), incentive-based polices, strict legal enforcement, and ongoing evaluation and oversight. Like many regions, including Arizona and the desert SW of the U.S., the Iranians need immediate action, both short and long-term.
Arizona agriculture will be continually forced to deal with the increasing urban population and the diminishing water supplies. The recent results coming from Abdelmohsen et al., (2025) provide a valuable assessment of groundwater supplies in the LCRB and Arizona and the importance of conservation measures. As groundwater supplies are further diminished, that will likely direct more attention surface water sources and intensify the competition for all TWS sources. The recent work from Chandanpukar, et al. (2025) further demonstrates the importance of our water conservation needs.
This also reinforces the critical need for Arizona to develop functional groundwater legislation for areas beyond the established AMAs. It is imperative that we manage the water resources we have with great care and discipline. No one is going to come save us and there are no other water resources we can draw from. We need valid and realistic information to work with (i.e. Chandanpukar et al., 2025) and we need practical and effective conservation guidelines employed.

Fig. 1. Global map of long-term TWS trends from GRACE/FO.
(A) Trends in TWS (cm year−1) from February 2003 to April 2024 (see Materials and Methods). Mega-regions (regions exceeding −0.2 cm year−1 and connecting previously reported TWS hot spots) are outlined in black and labeled 1 to 4 corresponding to the main text. (B) Zonal sum of TWS trends for all (black) and non-glaciated regions (red). Source: Chandanpukar, et al. 2025.

Fig. 2. Mapping robustness of TWS trends.
(A) Drying and wetting land regions from where the TWS trend sign has been persistent and less sensitive to the increasing GRACE/FO record length. (B) Ratio of local interannual variability of detrended TWS anomalies to their long-term local trends. The red and blue color bars indicate regions with decreasing TWS trend and increasing TWS trend from Figure 1. Source: Chandanpukar, et al. 2025.
References
Abdelmohsen, K., Famiglietti, J. S., Ao, Y.Z., Mohajer, B., & Chandanpurkar, H. A. 2025. Declining freshwater availability in the Colorado River basin threatens sustainability of its critical groundwater supplies. Geophysical Research Letters, 52,e2025GL115593. https://doi.org/10. 1029/2025GL115593
Castle, S.L., B.F. Thomas, J. T. Reager, S. C. Swenson, M. Rodell, J. S. Famiglietti. 2014. Groundwater depletion during drought threatens future water security of the Colorado River Basin. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 5904–5911.
Chandanpurkar, H.A., J. T. Reager, J. S. Famiglietti, R. S. Nerem, D. P. Chambers, M.-H. Lo,B. D. Hamlington, T. H. Syed. 2021. The seasonality of global land and oceanmass and the changing water cycle. Geophys. Res. Lett.48,e2020GL091248.
Chandanpukar, H.A.,Famiglietti, J.S., Gopalan, K, Wiese, D.N., Wada, Y., Kakinuma, K., Reager,J.T., and Zhang, F. 2025. Science Advances, Vol. 11, Issue 30, 25 July 2025. DOI:10.1126/sciadv.adx0298
Famiglietti, J.S. 2014. The global groundwater crisis. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4,945–948.
Famiglietti, J.S. 2019. A map of the future of water. Trend Magazine, 3 March2019.
Famiglietti, J.S. and G. Ferguson. 2021. The hidden crisis beneath our feet. Science 372,344–345.
Khorrami, M.,M. Sherzaei, K. Ghobadi-Far, S. Werth, G. Carlson, and G. Zhai. 2023. Groundwater volume loss in Mexico City constrained by In SAR and GRACE observations and mechanical models. Geophys. Res. Lett.50,e2022GL101962.
Kowsar, N. and A. Nader. 2025. Iran’s TapsAre Nearly Empty: After five straight years of drought, the country is running dry. Foreign Policy, 7 August 2025.
Mohan, C., T. Gleeson, T. Forstner, J. S. Famiglietti, I. de Graaf. 2023. Quantifying groundwater’s contribution to regional environmental-flows in diverse hydrologic landscapes. Water Resour. Res. 59,e2022WR033153 (2023).
Rodell, M., J. Famiglietti, D. N. Wiese, J.T. Reager, H. K. Beaudoing, F. W. Landerer, M.-H. Lo. 2018. Emerging trends inglobal freshwater availability. Nature 557, 651–659(2018).
Rodell, M., Famiglietti, J.S., Chen, J., Seneviratne, S. I., Viterbo, P., Holl, S., &Wilson, C. R.2004. Basin scale estimates of evapotranspiration using GRACE and otherobservations. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(20), L20504. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020873
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Scanlon, B.R., S. Fakhreddine, A. Rateb, I. deGraaf, J. S. Famiglietti, T. Gleeson, R. Q.Grafton, E. Jobbagy, S. Kebede, S. R. Kolusu, L. F. Konikow, D. Long, M.Mekonnen, H. M. Schmied, A. Mukherjee, A. MacDonald, R. C. Reedy, M.Shamsudduha, C. T. Simmons, A. Sun, R. G. Taylor, K. G. Villhoth, C. J.Vorosmarty, and C. Zheng. 2023. Global water resources and the role of groundwater in a resilient water future. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 4,87–101.
Silvertooth,J.C. 2025. Groundwater assessment in the lower Colorado River basin. Universityof Arizona, Vegetable IPM Newsletter, Vol. 16, No. 14.
Voss, K.A., J. S. Famiglietti, M. Lo, C. R. de Linage, M. Rodell, and S.C. Swenson. 2013. Groundwater depletion in the Middle East from GRACE withimplications for transboundary water management in the Tigris-Euphrates-WesternIran region. Water Resour.Res. 49, 904–914.
Xu, L., J. S.Famiglietti. 2023. Global patterns of water-driven human migration. WIREsWater 10, e1647