Jun 11, 2025
Colorado River Status— June 2025
We have now experienced 25 years of significant drought in the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. In the Colorado River basin (Figure 1), the annual flow of the Colorado River has decreased by approximately 19% in the 21st century compared to the 20th century.
From 1906 to 2000, the Colorado River basin averaged about 14.6 million acre-feet (MAF) annually. In the 21st century, average annual flows on the Colorado River have averaged approximately 12.5 MAF per year. This represents a decrease of about 1.75 MAF per year, which is approximately 19% less than the 20th-century average (https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45546).
This decline is attributed to the change in the climate with warming temperatures and reduced precipitation and is being referred to as a megadrought. The megadrought in the southwestern United States, beginning in 2000, is currently the driest multi-decade period in the region since at least 800 CE. This megadrought has been the driest in at least 1,200 years, exceeding a similar megadrought in the late 1500s. (Woodhouse, et al. 2010).
Long range climate models predict further reductions in Colorado River stream flows, with some projections showing declines of 5% to 30% compared to the 1971-2000 average by 2050 (Colorado Climate Center, 2023).
As a result, reservoirs are low throughout the region and the stress on water delivery systems is extreme. Recent projections by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation indicate a high probability of water levels at Lake Mead in December 2026 to be lower than 1,050 ft. above sea level (Figure 2), which would trigger Tier 2a reductions based on the 2007 interim guidelines, Minute 323, lower basin drought contingency plan, and the binational water scarcity contingency plan (Figure 3).
However, all these conservation guidelines on the Colorado River will expire in 2026. Therefore, there is still the need for the delegations representing the Colorado River basin states to develop an agreement on a new set of conservation guidelines. At present, the lower basin states are in agreement, but the upper basin states will not accept the terms proposed by the lower basin states. Thus, they remain at an impasse.
Based on the Law of the River (The Law of the River: Foundational Documents and Programs, CRS, 2025), if the basin states are not able to decide on a new plan together, the U.S. Department of the Interior (DoI) and the Bureau of Reclamation (BoR) will have the responsibility for making the decisions.
At present, a new commissioner for the BoR has not been appointed by the new federal administration. However, based on my understanding from recent basin state meetings, the BoR has been more engaged under the Trump administration and that should be helpful. Stong leadership on these issues is urgently needed, and the situation is presenting a serious test on our system of governance on the Colorado River.


Figure 1. The Colorado River basin and U.S. areas that import Colorado River water.
Source: Bureau of Reclamation, Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study,
2012.

Figure 2. Lake Mead end-of-month elevations based on model projections from April and
May 2025, 24-Month study inflow scenarios.

Figure 3. Tier 2a reductions based on the 2007 interim guidelines, Minute 323, lower
basin drought contingency plan, and binational water scarcity contingency plan.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.